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Friday, 9 September 2022

Weaponization of assets - What are India`s options from Russia`s example?

 Weaponization of assets – Gas and Oil assets by Russia


An interesting article by one of my favorite authors– Swaminathan Iyer (Swaminomics) alluding to “Weaponization of key assets”.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/et-commentary/whos-sanctioning-whom-how-the-ukraine-screenplay-has-been-reversed/articleshow/94035863.cms


Russia, which was expected to be on the defensive after the western sanctions has skillfully played on the “weaponization of gas and oil supplies” to survive during this war-

a) By supplying oil at high discounts to its allies like India and China, Russia has kept its oil revenues flowing

b) By throttling gas supplies to Europe, Europe has slipped into a recession due to high energy costs and struggling! In fact it was Russia that was expected to be in a major recession!!

“Weaponization” might sound like a very strong, aggressive, and sometimes unethical term but viewed from a different perspective it is actually “Playing to core strengths”.

"Weaponization” is used in different forms in both corporate as well as geopolitics for individual benefits.

1) Amazon uses its massive IT and distribution reach to throttle its small
competitors

2) Reliance used its strong balance sheet / financial muscle from its core
business to play the tariff war in the Indian telecom space which led to a market consolidation/market exits

3) US government recently barred Nvidia from selling artificial intelligence chips to China to impede technological development in China

From India`s perspective, are there any assets that it can weaponize?

a) Well recently, India banned wheat exports when there was a food shortage but tweaked it to strategic supplies to needy countries to garner “brownie points”.

b) India played its oil imports card to get heavily discounted oil from Russia

c) India`s other major asset is its “human soft power/skills” -  Indian managers, software engineers, and even laborers to middle east countries. However, weaponizing “soft power” will be possible only if there are sufficient jobs available in the country. Else there will be a massive unemployment problem.

Moot points - are there any other assets that India and Indian companies can “Weaponize” for its benefit?

Look forward to replies/comments!!

#weaponization#russianaggression , #energy , #wheat , #india , #softpower#business , #europe ,#oilgas#swaminomics

India as 5th largest economy - Subtle facts

India has done itself proud by becoming the world`s 5th largest economy ~ $3.8trn . A long way from $274bn GDP (as per IMF data) in 1991 when economic reforms were unleashed. Many pundits are hailing India having reached an exalted level on the economic front.

However, these pundits should look at the other 2 main critical indicators for an economy -
  1. GDP per capita - Shows prosperity per person in the country. 
  2. Gini coefficient - Indicates the level of inequality in economic development. Between the rich and poor / haves and have not!

India`s GDP per capita of $3,100 / person, as per IMF data, ranks it a lowly 140 rank. Gini coefficient score of 43.3, as per Worldeconomics.com, ranks it a very low ranking amongst its peers!

While we can celebrate the 5th ranking milestone but the real story of development and the way forward needs to be highlighted and worked upon. India needs to chart a completely different growth story as compared to its peers in the top 5 club !!