In my blog a couple of weeks ago (http://ramnarayanan1112.blogspot.com/2015/01/political-re-alignment-in-india-post.html) I had touched upon 3 major points:
1. The political platform of India has
shifted with the pillars being development and governance. These shifts look
difficult to reverse.
2. The BJP`s juggernaut is rolling on based
on the above platform.
3. An effective opposition is very much
required for effective political governance.
The Delhi elections in which the Aam
Aadmi Party (AAP) with a score of 67-3 have reinforced 2 points and effectively
disproved one point. Wrong ones first. The BJP, whose juggernaut was rolling
on, was trumped up by the AAP which focused on effective governance. The Congress
Party has been wiped out totally. AAP has been able to effectively communicate its
message
of effective governance better than the BJP and hence have been voted in by the
people of Delhi. Graph no.1 which shows the vote share movements in the last
one ad half years shows that firstly AAP has gained in the 2014 elections at
the expense of Congress from the 2013 elections and secondly in the nine months
since 2014 elections the BJP vote share has declined and back to the same level
as the 2013 elections. Hence AAP has been able to effectively halt the BJP
juggernaut.
The
elections proved that development and governance platforms have been strengthened
further and here to stay. The Congress which had no base of development and
governance has been wiped out with not a single seat in the Delhi assembly for
the first time ever. The fact that the people of Delhi have given a sweeping
mandate to AAP, after giving them a thumbs down in the Lok Sabha elections 9
months back, shows the confidence on the message of governance communicated by
AAP. Governance probably plays a bigger role in Delhi, as being the national
capital of India, it is comparatively better developed and has the best
infrastructure in the country but poor law and order situation and high
corruption at all levels. This probably means that governance in day to day
life is high on the important issues for Delhites. This issue was addresses by
the AAP`s 49 day rule last year with initiatives like anti-corruption hotline
and midnight raids, etc. and hence been able to reap the rewards of the people`s
requirements.
Till
the Delhi elections, the space occupied by the opposition was getting squeezed
by the BJP with successive election victories, since the last Lok Sabha polls.
The Modi – Shah combine was considered invincible. With the AAP win in Delhi,
we now have a semblance of an opposition party which can play the role of an effective
opposition which is very important in a democracy. AAP, having won on a
platform of governance, conforms to the politically realignment theory of
development and governance platform. The other opposition parties like the
socialists, TMC, etc. have been greatly enthused by the road block posed to
BJP. They should however realize that they can play an effective opposition and
win the people`s mind share only if they re-align to the new political platform
of governance and development. The prospect of AAP playing a major national
role immediately is very distant as it’s still confined to some pockets in
India only and will take time to build up a national base.
What
should AAP do meet the expectations of the massive mandate they have got:
a) Recognize
that governance works well on a long term basis only when combined with
development. Highly populist measures will erode its platform in the long run.
b) Focus
on reducing corruption, as they did previously, and make people` day to day
life easier.
c) Keep
up its election manifesto promise on good infrastructure and recognize that it
is now a birth right of the people.
d) Please
don`t be anti-industry. Finally industrial development, in a proper manner, is
what can lead to development.
The
hallmark of the well-developed western countries is development and governance.
For long Indians have been put on a socialist and populist agenda which has
ensured neither of the two. Even during the phases of development like the 90`s
and 2000`s governance levels have been abysmally low. For the first time in the
history of India we have a ruling party focused on development and a ruling party in a state focusing on effective governance.
Let us hope that this political
re-alignment juggernaut moves along and makes India a truly developed nation.
