Aam Aadmi People`s Party (AAP) victory in Delhi elections: what it means for political re-alignment in India

In my blog a couple of weeks ago (http://ramnarayanan1112.blogspot.com/2015/01/political-re-alignment-in-india-post.html) I had touched upon 3 major points:

1.    The political platform of India has shifted with the pillars being development and governance. These shifts look difficult to reverse.

2.    The BJP`s juggernaut is rolling on based on the above platform.

3.    An effective opposition is very much required for effective political governance.

The Delhi elections in which the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) with a score of 67-3 have reinforced 2 points and effectively disproved one point. Wrong ones first. The BJP, whose juggernaut was rolling on, was trumped up by the AAP which focused on effective governance. The Congress Party has been wiped out totally. AAP has been able to effectively communicate its message of effective governance better than the BJP and hence have been voted in by the people of Delhi. Graph no.1 which shows the vote share movements in the last one ad half years shows that firstly AAP has gained in the 2014 elections at the expense of Congress from the 2013 elections and secondly in the nine months since 2014 elections the BJP vote share has declined and back to the same level as the 2013 elections. Hence AAP has been able to effectively halt the BJP juggernaut.

The elections proved that development and governance platforms have been strengthened further and here to stay. The Congress which had no base of development and governance has been wiped out with not a single seat in the Delhi assembly for the first time ever. The fact that the people of Delhi have given a sweeping mandate to AAP, after giving them a thumbs down in the Lok Sabha elections 9 months back, shows the confidence on the message of governance communicated by AAP. Governance probably plays a bigger role in Delhi, as being the national capital of India, it is comparatively better developed and has the best infrastructure in the country but poor law and order situation and high corruption at all levels. This probably means that governance in day to day life is high on the important issues for Delhites. This issue was addresses by the AAP`s 49 day rule last year with initiatives like anti-corruption hotline and midnight raids, etc. and hence been able to reap the rewards of the people`s requirements.

Till the Delhi elections, the space occupied by the opposition was getting squeezed by the BJP with successive election victories, since the last Lok Sabha polls. The Modi – Shah combine was considered invincible. With the AAP win in Delhi, we now have a semblance of an opposition party which can play the role of an effective opposition which is very important in a democracy. AAP, having won on a platform of governance, conforms to the politically realignment theory of development and governance platform. The other opposition parties like the socialists, TMC, etc. have been greatly enthused by the road block posed to BJP. They should however realize that they can play an effective opposition and win the people`s mind share only if they re-align to the new political platform of governance and development. The prospect of AAP playing a major national role immediately is very distant as it’s still confined to some pockets in India only and will take time to build up a national base.

What should AAP do meet the expectations of the massive mandate they have got:

a) Recognize that governance works well on a long term basis only when combined with development. Highly populist measures will erode its platform in the long run.

b)  Focus on reducing corruption, as they did previously, and make people` day to day life easier.

c)    Keep up its election manifesto promise on good infrastructure and recognize that it is now a birth  right of the people.

d)   Please don`t be anti-industry. Finally industrial development, in a proper manner, is what can lead to development.

The hallmark of the well-developed western countries is development and governance. For long Indians have been put on a socialist and populist agenda which has ensured neither of the two. Even during the phases of development like the 90`s and 2000`s governance levels have been abysmally low. For the first time in the history of India we have a ruling party focused on development and a ruling party in a state focusing on effective governance.

Let us hope that this political re-alignment juggernaut moves along and makes India a truly developed nation.