Michael Porter and the Indian Cricket Team

As India capitulated to one other overseas cricket series defeat to England last week, any Indian cricket fan is bound to ask the question – why again after coming so close? It’s not that the Indian team has been vanquished by the English cricket team, as the Indian team was in a strong position in all but one of the tests. The Indian team, ranked no.1 in test cricket, had all the elements at its disposal – a limited overs series before the tests so as to acclimatize to the conditions, a supposedly great team with the world`s best batsman as its aggressive leader, a great fast bowling unit, many of the players having played in England before, etc. Like Jerry Mcguire asked “Show me the money”, the Indian cricket fans are asking “Show me the victories”.

I as a corporate professional and an avid cricket fan tried to analyze the possible reasons for the Indian cricket team`s failure to win series abroad using a framework (what else can typical MBA`s do?) – Global Management guru Michael Porter`s value chain framework. Porter`s value chain framework analyzes the performance of a firm as a portfolio of activities. Applying the same concept I have tried to analyze the Indian team`s performance based on their main activities and support activities. Scores have been attributed to the various elements with green – positive, grey – neutral and red – negative.

After analysis Porter`s value chain framework for the Indian test team reflects as below:

Main Activities

1.     Preparation (Score : negative)

The Indian team made some structured efforts but did not have a comprehensive preparation for a difficult tour like England`s. Some players like Pujara, Ishant Sharma and Ashwin played in the county league to get used to conditions and hence they were able to perform decently well. However the Indian didn’t play enough practice matches to get used to the conditions and hence repeated the same mistake that they did before the South African series as well as the last English tour in 2014. Infact the Indian team cut short a practice match ostensibly so that they don’t tire themselves!

The other strategy adopted for getting match practice was to play the limited overs series before the tests. But hey, white ball cricket is a different proposition from red ball cricket, especially in England, where the red ball swings more. Poor preparation indeed! To add to the misery most of the players were just back from a grueling IPL.

2.     Bowling : (Score : positive)

As discussed earlier, after a long time the bowling team is consistently bowling out opposition teams in overseas tours as evident with the present English tour and the previous South African tours. Both the fast bowlers as well as the spinners are able to consistently put the opposition under pressure in various conditions. In the present tour as well as the South African tour, there have been superlative performances by the pacers as well as by the spinners like Ashwin`s in the first test and Jadeja in the last test of the English series.

3.     Batting (Score : negative)

With the exception of the Nottingham test, the Indian batters could not put decent scores to put England under pressure. India now produces excellent white ball batsmen like Shikar Dhawan, Hardik Pandya, etc. but except for Virat Kohli and to some extent Cheteshwar Pujara and Ajinkya Rahane, Indian batters cannot last in tough overseas conditions in tests with the red ball. Most of the batsmen, so used to playing limited overs cricket in docile Indian pitches, don’t have the skills sets to bat in bowler friendly wickets and surprisingly are unable to play spin too.

4.     Fielding (Score : neutral)

Most of the Indian players are excellent outfielders but poor slip fielders – again effect of limited overs cricket. With the exception of KL Rahul, the close in fielders have poor catching skills. On top of that India also faces a genuine problem of lack of quality wicket keepers as seen by the pathetic display of both Dinesh Kartik and Rishabh Pant in the absence of Wriddhiman Saha.

Supporting Activities

a.     Coach & Support Staff (Score : neutral)

Ravi Shastri was an average player in his playing time but it is man management skills which has probably got him the job and not his technical. As a compared to a tough no nonsense but technically sound coach like Anil Kumble, Ravi Shastri is holding on to the job just by pleasing Virat Kohli. However in tough and crunch conditions, key critical and tough inputs which needs to be sent by Shastri seems missing which a technically more competent coach would do. Also repeated blunders in team selection shows Shastri in poor light. Similarly with the lack of test batting skills in the Indians, the team needs a highly technical batting coach like probably Rahul Dravid as compared to Sanjay Bangar.

b.     Team composition and skillsets  (Score : neutral)

India probably is the only team which can boast of a vast bench strength thanks to IPL which has thrown up new talent like Rishabh Pant, Vihari, etc. Fast bowling department, which used to India`s weak link, has an array of excellent talent with wide array of talent to choose from. Gone are the days in the 80`s when India had only Kapil Dev to bank upon.

However in tough overseas conditions, India`s main weakness has been in their traditional strong base – batting. Indian batsmen`s technique are good for limited overs and home conditions but are suspect in overseas conditions. The other major problem has been lack of quality openers with Murali Vijay and KL Rahul having the technique but unable to perform consistently while Shikar Dhawan is good only in one day cricket.  Yes, there are very few quality test batsmen globally now but India should be better off considering the amount of talent available and money involved in cricket.

              

c.      Execution / Attitude (Score : neutral)

While the team`s urge to win isn’t under doubt, the ecosystem in the team also needs some introspection. One of the issues has been the constant team change by Kohli which probably has affected the morale of some players. Kohli `s captaincy too has been average in crunch situations especially in field placements in critical situations and also his dominant attitude is also leading to issues in the team. 

The team selection process too leaves much to be desired especially in the Lords test by playing Kuldeep Yadav and not playing Cheteshwar Pujara in the first test the blame for which lays on the coach and captain. Lastly, the players of today don’t seem to like the Test cricket, with the exception of a few, thanks to other money spinners like IPL, one dayers, etc. The new bunch of players loathe the tests and is evident in their approach.

To conclude, Indian test cricket has a major structural problem thanks to IPL, limited overs cricket, coach – captain influence on the team and lack of focus on preparation. India probably will remain as no.1 test team thanks to wins in India and focus will shift to one day’s cricket once they win tournaments. But still... I leave it to the readers to judge.

Online Poll results : Trends from the "No confidence motion" debate against the BJP government

The entire nation was glued to the Indian parliament`s proceedings on 20<sup>th</sup> July`18 with the debate on the “No confidence motion" brought against the incumbent BJP government by the opposition parties. The motion was rejected soundly as expected. 

An online poll, conducted by me, had four questions on the aftereffects of the proceedings with an eye on the 2019 poll. The trends are not unusual but has some interesting for the 2019 general elections.

Disclaimer : This poll had respondents from various parts of India and other countries across the globe and can have a distinct urban bias.

Poll results

The poll results from the 4 questions:

1)      Who was the real winner of the No confidence motion?

2)      Has the BJP 's 2019 poll prospects increased after this no confidence motion?

3)      What’s your reaction to Rahul Gandhi's action of hugging Narendra Modi?

4)      How was Narendra Modi's speech on the no confidence motion?

Poll Analysis

The poll results have shown that the opposition parties, led by the Congress, have erred in moving the “No confidence motion” against the BJP government. On the other hand, it can be said that this was a symbolic move by the opposition and the results were expected. In 1989 the combined opposition led by VP Singh did the same against the Rajiv Gandhi government, which had a brutal majority in the Parliament, and riding on the wave VP Singh managed to defeat Rajiv Gandhi in the 1989 polls. 

This poll results clearly show the following trends in the lead up to the 2019 general elections:

• As the online polls indicate, Narendra Modi has emerged as the clear winner from this no    confidence motion and hence remains the undisputed tallest leader in the country with the    opposition`s mascot Rahul Gandhi no match for him. Rahul Gandhi`s antics in hugging Modi have   earned him more negative publicity rather than support his message of “Love for all including enemies”!

• It’s time the Congress introspects and parade other young and capable leadership alternatives like Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot. This also indicated that other opposition big guns like Mamta Banerjee, Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav will vie for the combined opposition leadership spot and thus create a ruckus amongst themselves. It will also support the BJP`s assertion that there are too many claimants for the opposition`s leadership spot and thus it will be a “unstable alliance.”

• The BJP too has quite a task cut out for the 2019 polls as indicated by the poll. Despite Modi`s tallest Indian leader image being enhanced after the no confidence motion, about 25% of the respondents indicate that BJP`s 2019 poll prospects have not increased after the debate. 

• Interestingly, about 23% of the respondents indicate that Modi`s speech had nothing new and was “drumbeating of same old issues” like GST implementation, undoing 70 years of Congress rule,clamp down on black money,etc. This indicates that the BJP government in the time left has to show some semblance of real action like cutting down on fuel taxes, bring back some of the black money stashed in Swiss accounts, improve the day to day standard of living of common people, etc. 

     Tough task ahead for Modi and the BJP but they have shown the will to take tough actions. Will they now?

What the football world cup and GE`s position can teach the USA`s tariff moves

The last week in the global arena has been dominated by two major news items one of which the global trade wars with the US announcing tariffs on imports on many items mainly on China and  the other major news item is centered around Russia – not anything to do with Vladimir Putin but due to ongoing football world cup! The other news items, probably not so major, but which has got hidden in this noise is that the iconic US behemoth General Electric has been moved out of the Dow Jones 30 index for the first time since 1907 and the new age iconic company Apple is within a kissing distance of the one trillion market capitalization mark.

As this blog is being written, the world cup football has seen a number of upsets with the major countries struggling against well-organized lesser known teams. Germany lost its opening match, Brazil drew its opening match before scrapping through in its next match, France has struggled, Argentina is practically out of the tournament and only Portugal have managed to do well only due to the individual brilliance of Cristiano Ronaldo. The lesser known teams like Mexico, Iceland, Switzerland, Nigeria and Croatia, who have never won the world cup before, have knocked the winds out of the sails of the big teams. 

Big teams have big names who play for most part of the year for the rich big European clubs, where they earn huge amounts of money, while country games are second priority for them. National teams which are too dependent on these superstars are unable to work as a cohesive unit. Messi`s body language while playing in the La Liga for the Spanish club Barcelona is positive while he has looked to the contrary while playing for Argentina while the Brazilian star, Neymar Jr, who attracted attention as the world costliest player when he moved to Paris St. German team in the French league, too has been found wanting in the world cup. Cristiano Ronaldo has been an exception but the Portuguese team is too dependent on him and soon teams can sort him out. Iceland, which has a population of only 300,000 and Mexico, Croatia and Russia, despite no superstars like Messi, but with their great teamwork and swift game have surprised their larger rivals with surprisingly good results.

What explains the sudden surge of the smaller teams? Firstly, many of their players play in the competitive leagues and rub shoulders with the best and hence acquire great technical skills. Secondly, since they want to prove themselves as a nation, they are able to gel well as a team without any egos. Thirdly, with the interconnected world, coaching skills, support systems and knowledge are easily transferrable which help the smaller teams. If this trend continues in this world cup, who knows we might have a surprise winner of this world cup.

General Electric, the US industrial behemoth and the epitome of US capitalism, has been seen as a sign of a progressive and a global business firm and cynosure of all eyes for its management talent and shareholder returns. Jack Welch, the company`s CEO from 1981 – 2001, was the epitome of the CEO`s across all times. However since the turn of the century, GE `s financial performance has been overtaken by new age companies like Apple, Google, Facebook, etc. The financial crisis of 2009 hit GE capital, the finance firm of GE, pretty hard and with the decline in its power business the company was forced to hive some of its assets to stay profitable. Due to its share price sliding down by more than 50% in the last 2 years, the GE stock will be removed from the Dow Jones – 30 index from end of June`18. Quite a fall for the behemoth! Nowadays asset light and technology oriented firms command better valuations as compared to previous superstars and industrial behemoths like GE and Exxon Mobil.

The US government has imposed tariffs on a number of items, especially targeted at China, and has sparked a global trade war. The position taken by the US government is that, the US being a superpower, has been taking the responsibility of the world for a long time at the US`s cost and its own people`s jobs. Hence by imposing tariffs, the US government proposes to reduce the trade deficit of the USA and secondly, the US is clamping down on immigration and outsourcing, to create and save local American jobs. Fair enough! 

However, the US economy thrives on consumption which is fed by cheap imports. Secondly, the innovation culture in the US is driven by the soft power and knowledge skills of various immigrants which has led to the US being in the forefront of technology and industrial development. By taking the recent clampdown moves, the US risks getting isolated from the world which can reduce its negotiating power across the globe. Secondly, with the transfer of knowledge becoming easier and world being more integrated, many non US based and fleet footed firms can challenge the US firms.  Thirdly, China has grown to be a global superpower since the dawn of the century and has been focusing on technology and IP development on top of its manufacturing base. Similarly India too has grown by leaps and bounds, while other nations like Indonesia, Russia have strong economies.

These countries can hence challenge the US very much like the smaller teams in the world cup football and hence the US can meet the same fate as GE in case it takes its superpower status to the extremes.

Mr. Trump- hence watch football world cup and be careful!

China`s oil diplomacy moves to bolster its super power status

China, the world`s largest oil importer, announced recently that it will set up a crude oil futures exchange which will be functional by late March`18. The contracts will be traded in the Chinese local currency Yuan and seeks to establish the Chinese oil futures exchange as a challenge to the traditional oil benchmarks like Brent and Dubai crude and the US benchmark WTI.

China has surpassed the USA in the recent past as the highest oil importing country globally with its 2017 imports of 8.4mn bpd surpassing the US imports at 7.9 mn bpd. The key reasons for China moving to the dominant position in the global oil trade are:

a) Oil demand growing at 11-13% fuelled by its GDP growth at around 7.5% annually.

b) Build up its strategic oil reserves across the country as a buffer against oil price fluctuations

c)Surging shale oil production in USA which has led to reduced imports into USA.

Over the last 15-20 years, the global commodities markets has been driven to  large extent by the Chinese demand due to its explosive GDP growth which in turn fuelled China`s energy demand and infrastructure growth. Apart from oil, other base commodities like iron ore, copper concentrates, bauxite and coal have seen very high demand rates and increased imports into China. 

Futures Exchanges in China

In order to have a relevant pricing mechanism, 4 futures exchanges are functional in China under the tutelage of China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) out of which 3 exchanges deal with commodities and 1 exchange in financial futures. The exchanges are:

1.Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE, 1993) – trades in agricultural commodities and PTA.

2. Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE 1993) – trades in agricultural products and industrial products like PP, LLDPE, iron ore, etc.

3. Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE, 1999) -  trades in ferrous, nonferrous and precious metals, chemicals and energy products

4. China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX, 2006) – treasury bonds, options and futures.

In the last 5 years, China has witnessed substantial increase in volumes being traded on its exchanges. As reported by the China Futures Association, the turnover of futures contracts has doubled from nearly $15 bn in 2011 to nearly $30 bn in 2016.

Objectives for the oil exchange

The stated objective, for the new oil futures exchange, is to set a regional oil price benchmark as China is the largest oil importer globally. However these moves by China will have to be seen from the perspective of China`s ambition to become a global superpower. Like the US in the 20^th century and Great Britain in the 18^th and 19^th century, one of the steps that China is taking towards its path of superpower status is to control the global trade flows.

China`s global ambitions for a superpower status

As per WTO 2016 figures, China controls 13% of the global trade exports and 10% of global trade imports. With its plans for OBOR, which aims to link China to all major nations China aspires to be trade centre of the world very similar to the old days when the silk route trade was one of the dominant trade routes of the world. In the last few years China has made strategic investments in many parts of the world like in Africa and to support its trade flows, it has bolstered its defence presence in key ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc.

To support the Chinese trade patterns, China also aspires to make the local currency - Yuan to be a global currency and pose a challenge to the US dollar as a global currency. Since 2016, the Yuan is one of the 5 currencies in Special Drawing Rights (SDR) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with a 10% weightage. With trade in Yuan. Thus starting an oil exchange in Yuan, China can increase its stake in the global trade flow as the Brent and West Texas Intermediate are dollar denominated exchanges.

Challenges for the proposed oil exchange

On the other side some of the challenges that the Chinese oil exchange would face are:

·  The Yuan has faced many issues of being manipulated by the Chinese government and hence a big question exists over the currency`s movements. Hence many global players will be skeptical pf playing in a Yuan denominated contract given the forex risks and convertibility issues of the currency.

·  Normally, all the oil benchmarks (Brent, WTI and Dubai) are based in a production center and not in a demand center. Hence the liquidity of the trade in the new exchange can be hampered.

·   Since China is a demand center, freight plays an important role in the pricing and hence freight cost effect in the pricing will be unclear. It can be argued that the London Metal Exchange (LME) is based in London when hardly any metal production occurs in the United Kingdom. However, London being one of the major financial centres of the world coupled with the fact that the LME has physical warehouses in many parts of the world helped LME in becoming the global benchmark for metals trade.

Thus China`s move to setup an oil futures exchange is not only control oil pricing but also in tune with China`s global superpower ambitions of becoming a powerhouse like the USA after WW-2 and Great Britain after the Industrial Revolution. Despite challenges, China has time and again proved that it can move against all odds and succeed. Whether the new oil futures exchange will be a success or not – only time will tell!

Technology disruptions – social backlash can disrupt the “disruptions”?

Summary

Technology Disruptions like block chain, 3D printing, VR etc will change business models but will also have a social impact. This blog looks at the changes in traditional business models by these “DISRUPTORS”.

The entire global business eco system is bracing up for the “Technology Disruptions” like 3D printing, block chain, virtual and augmented reality. These changes will be earth-shattering, like the impact of shale oil to the OPEC oil, and also completely change the business models globally. Products will be conceptualized, manufactured and delivered in a very different way as compared to in the traditional business models. Automation has already entrenched itself deeply with many human jobs being taken over by machines like in the banks. These disruptions will have major advantages in productivity but also probably have an adverse impact on the human social capital if not addressed to properly.

Technology disruptions has led to human and location agnostic manufacturing models...

Let’s take a firm say ABC Inc. which is in the business of manufacturing consumer goods. At present the operations are done by humans manning the machinery. In the future, artificial intelligence, robotics and automation will ensure a very minimal human intervention not only in the production space but also in allied activities like planning, procurement and supply chain processes. Advanced algorithms will ensure that nuances and changes as per market needs are captured without human filters.

The core activity of ABC Inc. – production operations – will be massively affected by advanced automation, robotics and 3D printing. Industrial robots are expected to take over from humans especially in extreme conditions like in nuclear plants, etc. Robots are like high efficiency and high productivity employees with no emotions – something which every boss would like to have. Imagine having an employee who doesn`t get fatigued out, doesn’t take leaves and works at same productivity all through the day and night!

3D printing is a major disruptor in the manufacturing process which has made the manufacturing place location agnostic. The 3D printing machines can print all types of intricate parts with high productivity and can use all types of material like metals, plastics, etc. due to which labour cost arbitrage across countries is wiped out. Thus, the manufacturing process can move anywhere and when combined with automation and robotics will change the complexion of manufacturing processes across industries.

Blockchain, big data and social media add to the disruptive forces …

Blockchain will massively change and disrupt the financial transactions. This disruption is so massive that traditional financial institutions and intermediaries like banks, credit card firms and payment channels, etc. will become redundant and will be forced to change its business models to survive. A block chain of a process created is so secure that the traditional security of financial institutions will not be required!

Marketing has been disrupted in a significant way by the social media which has ensured that firms can reach consumer directly. Online data analytics which collects and analyses consumer behavior has altered market research functions. Customer support too has been automated with repetitive functions like customer calls being taken over by automation.

HR function will have more interactions with machines rather than humans...

All human interactions are going to decrease with all the disruptions but what will the HR functions do when human count itself will be reduced? The HR department will have to deal with a different workplace which has both humans and machines and faced with not only human-human interactions but also human-machine interactions!

The major impact will be lesser number of workers….. Jobs!

Very soon, ABC Inc. will mostly have robots running their manufacturing operations using 3D printers and automated lines, machines taking care of procurement and supply chain and all systems manned by a central control room with very few humans! Sounds strange but it’s going to be true!

A World Bank report estimates that 62% of the jobs globally are under threat due to automation and disruptive technologies with the developing nations being affected the most. A situation, where a significant portion of the workforce will be without jobs and in many cases unemployable, will stare at many countries leading to profound implications on the social fabric of the society.

Countries like Switzerland are experimenting with concepts like “Universal Basic Income” for a basic minimum social security income for its citizens which is based on the presumption that the advanced level of revenues generated for the countries, due to these technology disruptions, will take care of the social costs as well. This may work in highly developed nations with aged populations but developing nations and countries with high population like India will find the going difficult.

A social backlash can derail implementation of the disruptive technologies 

The technological changes sweeping the global businesses will no doubt change the way business is done in a very positive manner but the social impact will have to be managed else it will prove to be a disruption to the technology disruptions!

Public backlash against globalization brought a wave of nationalistic forces like Donald Trump`s election victory in USA, Brexit, etc. which are threatening to disrupt the global integration. The US government`s actions in pulling out of TPP, Paris Accord, etc. have created a havoc in the global arena but have struck a chord with the local people. Similarly, leaders like Marie Le Pen and Boris Johnson, despite being loathed by many people globally, have a popular base by playing on the people`s fear of being affected adversely by globalization and hence are popular. A similar backlash against technological changes can disrupt the technological changes.

Is there a way out ??

Gary Kasparov, the former world chess champion, has said that humans should not fear automation but rather work with the machines for higher productivity and output citing a personal example of playing chess with the IBM Deep Blue computer.

To do this, it would require a huge amount of skill set training and mindset change so that the new wave of working population can be deployed in other value-added and skilled jobs. Education systems will have to be aligned to build up workforces with skill sets to handle these changes. Firms will need to train people to handle the new workplaces.

Thus, disruptive technological changes will need to affect people positively else the social backlash can be disastrous and prove to be the “DISRUPTOR” to these “DISRUPTIONS”.