The entire nation was glued to the Indian parliament`s
proceedings on 20th July`18 with the debate on the “No confidence motion" brought against the incumbent BJP government by the opposition parties. The
motion was rejected soundly as expected.
An online poll, conducted by me, had
four questions on the aftereffects of the proceedings with an eye on the 2019
poll. The trends are not unusual but has some interesting for the 2019 general
elections.
Disclaimer : This poll had respondents from various parts of
India and other countries across the globe and can have a distinct urban bias.
Poll results
The poll results from the 4 questions:
1)
Who was the real winner of the No confidence
motion?
2)
Has the BJP 's 2019 poll prospects increased
after this no confidence motion?
3)
What’s your reaction to Rahul Gandhi's action of
hugging Narendra Modi?
4)
How was Narendra Modi's speech on the no
confidence motion?
Poll Analysis
The poll results have shown that
the opposition parties, led by the Congress, have erred in moving the “No
confidence motion” against the BJP government. On the other hand, it can be
said that this was a symbolic move by the opposition and the results were
expected. In 1989 the combined opposition led by VP Singh did the same against
the Rajiv Gandhi government, which had a brutal majority in the Parliament, and
riding on the wave VP Singh managed to defeat Rajiv Gandhi in the 1989 polls.
This
poll results clearly show the following trends in the lead up to the 2019
general elections:
- As the online polls indicate, Narendra Modi has emerged as the clear winner from this no confidence motion and hence remains the undisputed tallest leader in the country with the opposition`s mascot Rahul Gandhi no match for him. Rahul Gandhi`s antics in hugging Modi have earned him more negative publicity rather than support his message of “Love for all including enemies”!
- It’s time the Congress introspects and parade other young and capable leadership alternatives like Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot. This also indicated that other opposition big guns like Mamta Banerjee, Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav will vie for the combined opposition leadership spot and thus create a ruckus amongst themselves. It will also support the BJP`s assertion that there are too many claimants for the opposition`s leadership spot and thus it will be a “unstable alliance.”
- The BJP too has quite a task cut out for the 2019 polls as indicated by the poll. Despite Modi`s tallest Indian leader image being enhanced after the no confidence motion, about 25% of the respondents indicate that BJP`s 2019 poll prospects have not increased after the debate.
- Interestingly, about 23% of the respondents indicate that Modi`s speech had nothing new and was “drumbeating of same old issues” like GST implementation, undoing 70 years of Congress rule,clamp down on black money,etc. This indicates that the BJP government in the time left has to show some semblance of real action like cutting down on fuel taxes, bring back some of the black money stashed in Swiss accounts, improve the day to day standard of living of common people, etc.
Tough task ahead for Modi and the BJP but they have shown the will to take
tough actions. Will they now?
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